Numer tematyczny 2/2014 ENG
This publication is part of Task 2, Establishing the integrated forecasting and information system providing employment forecasts, in the project „Analysis of the processes on the Polish labour market and in the area of social integration in the context of conducted economic policy”, implemented by the Human Resources Development Centre and the Institute of Labour and Social Studies. Project co-financed by the European Union under the European Social Fund.
Associate editor of the issue: Professor Elżbieta Kryńska (Institute of Labour and Social Studies)
Reviewers: Professor Andrzej Karpiński (Warsaw),
Table of Contents Special Issue No 1/2014
PREFACE – Elżbieta Kryńska
THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR LABOUR MARKET ANALYSES AND FORECASTS – Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski, Przemysław Włodarczyk
ECONOMETRIC MODELS USED IN EMPLOYMENT FORECASTING – Karolina Lewandowska-Gwarda
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS BY OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS IN POLAND – Artur Gajdos, Edyta Żmurkow-Poteralska
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS BY REGIONS AND OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS – Barbara Dańska-Borsiak, Iwona Laskowska, Alicja Olejnik
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS BY SECTORS AND OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS – Ewa Kusideł, Emilia Modranka
WWW.PROGNOZOWANIEZATRUDNIENIA.PL WEBSITE AND FORECASTING TOOL – AN EXAMPLE OF INFORMATION AND FORECASTING SYSTEM – Łukasz Arendt, Artur Gajdos
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
The labour market has been the focus of theorists and business practitioners since the beginning of its existence, making it the subject of many studies. Although it still has not been identified and described in a sufficient manner, especially in Poland, where we are dealing with the process of creation and maturation in this area. The fact that labour market institutions that take such actions as promotion of employment, alleviating the effects of unemployment, and occupational activation do not have the full facilities of academic knowledge in the area of their individual operation became the basis for beginning work on the project Analysis of the processes on the Polish labour market and in the area of social integration in the context of conducted economic policy. The primary goal of the project is to support labour market institutions by providing and developing analysis, monitoring and forecasting the labour market in the context of socio-economic policy, and by assesing the effectiveness of the services that they provide. The project has been implemented since 2009 by the Human Resource Development Centre in partnership with the Institute of Labour and Social Studies within the Human Capital Operational Programme, Priority I: Employment and Social Integration, Operation 1.1 System support to labour market institutions. It consists of three tasks. Tasks 1 is to conduct research and analyzes and develop six editions of the report Employment in Poland in the years 2008–2013. The purpose of the task 2 is to develop an integrated forecasting and information system that allows forecasting employment. Task 3 of the project is to monitor the effectiveness of the labour market policy – developing methodology for examining the effectiveness of key active policies for counteracting unemployment.
The studies presented in this issue of ”Social Policy” arose in the course of task 2. There were many substantive reasons for adopting it. The most important one was that there was a lack of basic information for planning in vocational education that were in line with anticipated future needs of the labour market. The results of several studies suggest that part of the unemployment in Poland is due to an inadequate match of qualifications and occupations between labour supply and labour demand. Creating an information base about the future demand for occupations and competences reduces the uncertainty of educational institutions and the personal risk in choice of vocational education. An important reason for developing a forecast and information system that enables forecasting employment is the fact that the vast majority of developed countries are developing more or less sophisticated forecasts for the labour demand by occupation. We are 15 years behind the other countries when it comes forecasting. Implementation of task 2 provided us with a chance to reduce the gap.
The integrated forecast and information system that allows forecasting employment is supposed to be used primarily by labour market institutions (especially public employment services, employment agencies, and training institutions), as well as social welfare institutions, educational institutions and government institutions, and state and local governments. Its users will also be the unemployed, who will obtain information on which field they should retrain to. In the long run, this system will be addressed directly to job seekers and young people who are just planning their career and have to choose a field of study. The widespread use of global forecast model for employment by occupational groups is possible by accessing an on-line portal www.prognozowaniezatrudnienia.pl.
Activities related to the development of an integrated employment forecasting and information system were undertaken in August 2011. They included (among others) a thorough diagnosis of the theoretical background and previous experience in the field of forecasting employment in Poland and in the world; development of a model for forecasting the demand for labour by occupational groups; preparation of pilot employment forecast by occupation until 2020 for a selected region (the Lodz voivodship); and, most importantly, the development of three forecasts for the demand for labour in Poland by occupational groups until 2020: global forecast (for the entire country), forecasts for all 16 voivodships, and forecasts for four economic sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, market services and non-market services). The results of our work have been made available by a publication of 10 reports and supplements in a paperback format and on the website.
In this issue of ”Social Policy” one can find papers that contain a collection of the results that were obtained from the research carried out within Task 2. The first two represent the theoretical and empirical context of the process in forecasting employment. The following three discuss the results of the employment forecasts by occupational groups in Poland until 2020 – for the entire country and by regions and economic sectors. The last paper presents the website www.prognozowaniezatrudnienia.pl and its main functionality, which is the forecasting tool. The scope of topocs elaborated in these papers were limited to the most important ones. I invite you to read this issue of ”Social Policy” and the research reports. I assure you that the reading will be fascinating!
editor Institute of Labour and Social Studies
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Łukasz Arendt — Ph.D., graduate of the Faculty of Economics and Sociology at the University of Lodz. Associate professor in the Department of Economic Policy at the University of Lodz and the Department of Employment and the Labour Market at the Institute of Labour and Social Studies. Member of the Polish Society for Social Policy. His professional interests are focused on labour market issues and ICT-driven changes in small and medium-sized enterprises. He has been involved as an expert in many national and international research projects focused on labour market.
Barbara Dańska-Borsiak — Ph.D., Associate professor at the Department of Spatial Econometrics at the University of Lodz. Specialist in application of quantitative methods and econometric models in economy research. Her interest in methodology concentrates on panel and multivariate data. She deals with issues connected with economic growth, convergence and the labour market. She is an expert and principal investigator of many research projects. She is the author of two books and the author and co-author of a number of publications in this field.
Artur Gajdos — Ph.D., Associate Professor at the Department of Spacial Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics and Sociology at the University of Lodz. He deals with issues connected with labour market forecasting, especially by occupations, and the creation of information systems for the labour market and the education system. He is the author (co-author) of several publications on modelling and forecasting the labour market. He has participated in many research projects on national and regional analyses of the labour market. He was a coordinator of the project Forecasting System for Labour Demand in the years 2004–2006. He is a national expert for CEDEFOP, a Member of Econometric Consortium that took part in the implementation of task ”Establishing the integrated forecasting and information system providing employment forecasts” within an EU funded project ”Analysis of the processes on the Polish labour market and in the area of social integration in the context of conducted economic policy”.
Elżbieta Kryńska — Ph.D., Professor of Economics. Head of the Department of Economic Policy at the Faculty of Economics and Sociology at the University of Lodz and Head of the Department of Employment and the Labour Market and Lodz branch of the Insti tute of Labour and Social Studies. She is a national and international expert in the field of economic and social policy, especially in the area of the labour market policy. Member of the Forecast Committee Bureau „Polska 2000 PLUS” at the Polish Academy of Sciences, the Committee on Labour and Social Policy Polish Academy of Sciences, head of the Regional Employment Board in Lodz and a member of National Employment Board. Her research interests focus on issues related to the function of contemporary labour market, especially social and economical determinants of unemployment. She is the author of over 250 publications, papers and monographs in this field. She has presented the results of her research on a number of academic conferences and seminars. She is the principal investigator of many national and international research projects.
Ewa Kusideł — Ph.D., Associate professor since 2000 at the Department of Spacial Econometrics at the University of Lodz. She is the author of many papers and monographs on the methodology and application of quantitative methods to describe and forecast economic phenomena. In recent years, she has been specializing in evaluation methods for programs and policies, especially in convergence analyzes.
Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski — Ph.D., Professor of Economics, head of the Department of Macroeconomics at the Faculty of Economics and Sociology of the University of Lodz. A member of The Committee on Economic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences and The Committee on Labour and Social Policy Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences. His interests include macroeconomics and labour market economy. He is the author of almost 300 publications, papers and monographs in this field. His most important publication is a book entitled Unemployment. A Theoretical Background (2002), for which he received an award from the L. Kronenberg Foundation.
Iwona Laskowska — Ph.D., graduate of the Economic Cybernetics and Computer Sciences at the Faculty of Economics and Sociology, the University of Lodz. Associate professor at the Department of Spatial Econometrics at the University of Lodz. She deals with the application of quantitative methods in economic research, including labour market analyzes. She takes part in research projects that concern the labour market, human resource management, i.e. Forecast System for Labour Demand; Determinants and Implications of self-employment in the Polish economy; The impact of human resource management on innovation and efficiency of economic organizations. She is the author and co-author of a number of publications in this field.
Karolina Lewandowska-Gwarda — Ph.D., Associate professor at the Department of Spacial Econometrics at the University of Lodz. She deals with implementing spatial econometric tools including multi equation spatial regression models and geographical information systems for socio-economic analyzes, with emphasis on issues connected with the labour market. She is the co-author of a book titled Spacial Economics. Methods and analysis models for spacial data, which she received an award from the Rector of University of Lodz. She is also the third place winner in Prof. Witold Kula Contest for her master’s paper titled Average wages, inflation, unemployment and labour productivity in Poland – analyses of interdependence and diversity.
Emilia Modranka — Master in economics. She is a graduate of Spacial Economics, and specialized in regional modelling and forecasting at the Faculty of Economics and Sociology at the University of Lodz. Ph.D. student at the Department of Spacial Econometrics, University of Lodz. She is a specialist at the Local Territorial Observatory in the Lodz voivodship at the Spatial Planning Bureau in the Lodz voivodship. Her academic paper covers regional analyzes with the use of statistic and spacial econometric methods.
Alicja Olejnik — Ph.D., She is a graduate of the Faculty of Technical Physics, Information Sciences and Applied Mathematics at the Technical University of Lodz. Associate professor at the Department of Spatial Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics and Sociology at the University of Lodz. She is the author of numerous academic publications on methodological and practical issues, including the following books: Spatial Econometrics. Methods and Spatial Data Analysis Models and Spatial Econometrics II. Advanced Models. She is involved in issues related to methodology of Spatial econometrics and its application in regional development.
Przemysław Włodarczyk — Master of Economics, teaching assistant at the Department of Macroeconomics of the University of Lodz. Laureate of the 4th edition of the contest for the Prize of the Chairman of the National Bank of Poland for the best Master’s thesis in economic sciences. Manager of a project entitled: ”Possibilities of use of DSGE models in the analysis of the nexus between monetary policy and unemployment on the basis of Polish economy”, which was allocated within PRELUDIUM 4 contest by the National Center of Science. His academic interests include: unemployment and monetary policy, new keynesian school, and fiscal sustainability.
Edyta Żmurkow-Poteralska — Graduate of the Department of Spacial Economics at the Faculty of Economics and Sociology at the University of Lodz. She is a Ph.D. student of economics at the Department of Spacial Econometrics at the University of Lodz. She deals with issues connected with innovations, diffusion of knowledge and technology and their impact on regional development and the labour market. She is the author and co-author of publications on innovation, regional development. She has participated in research projects on issues that concern the labour market, among others. She is a member of the Econometric Consortium that implements task ”Establishing the integrated forecasting and information system providing employment forecasts” within an EU funded project ”Analysis of the processes on the Polish labour market and in the area of social integration in the context of conducted economic policy”.